There's a strange dichotomy between the complexity of high level sports handicapping and the amount of theoretical literature on the subject. While successful sports betting is a complex and difficult pursuit, there's very little that's been written on the subject from a serious theoretical angle. For that reason, it can be helpful to delve into the wealth of books available to the serious poker player for insights that can be applied to sports betting.
Poker literature is especially applicable to the sports handicapper because both can be very profitable for a knowledgeable, experienced and skillful pro. Poker expert Bob Caro has noted that while there are a number of professional gamblers specializing in poker and sports wagering there's not a single person who can honestly say they play roulette for a living.
The simple fact is that the house edge in roulette cannot be overcome by any combination of skill, experience and/or discipline. When you win, it is because you get lucky. When you lose, its because you didnt get lucky. To add another Caro concept to the equation, the decisions that the player makes when playing roulette simply dont matter"at least in terms of overcoming the theoretical edge enjoyed by the house. In the long term, it doesnt matter whether you choose red or black, odd or even, or certain numbers. You may get lucky with your choices or you may not, but these decisions do not impact the house edge one iota.
Caro strongly emphasizes the importance of discipline at the table to a poker player's long term profitability. The average person goes into a casino to "escape" from the real world--in other words, he goes into a casino to temporarily forget the need for discipline that exists in day to day life. He wants to have a few drinks, do a little gambling and enjoy a break from the mundane. Casinos exist to facilitate this 'escape' while using their mathematical edge to turn a profit. While poker operates somewhat differently in terms of the casino making money, the motivation that drives a recreational poker player to the tables is no different than in any other casino game.
And the lesson that Caro gives to the would be expert poker player is the same lesson that Im going to give to you here. The first step toward becoming a successful sports gambler is to approach it with the same discipline that youd approach any other job. You must start to think about sports and sports wagering like a professional and not like a recreational gambler. The greater degree to which you can apply a regimented framework to the sports betting process, the greater degree to which you will be successful at it.
There's nothing wrong with being a recreational sports gambler, or a recreational gambler of any sort. They're vital to those of us who do this for a living since they're what keeps casinos and sportsbooks in business. Ultimately, the best handicapping is pointless without a sportsbook to take the action.
If your goal is to bet recreationally, that's great. Unless you have the dedication, desire and discipline to approach it at a profession a recreational approach to gambling is ultimately better for most people. You might benefit from some greater money management discipline, but at the end of the day as long as you don't bet more than you can afford to lose it's really no big deal.
Information:
Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.
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